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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to JAX 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP