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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 3-M.Haack punts 19 yards to MIA 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP