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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model