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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to MIA 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 8-J.Holland to MIA 7 for -4 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.05 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP