Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 3-M.Haack punts 48 yards to MIA 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 8-J.Holland to MIA 41 for 8 yards (33-S.Neal; 46-J.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-25-T.Jones, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.63 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model