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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(10:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at BUF 4 for 40 yards (21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model