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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 18

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (57-A.Epenesa), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model