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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to BUF 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at BUF 27 for 16 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.46 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model