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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 13

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.27 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model