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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-D.Felton to CLE 22 for 1 yard (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.51 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model