Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 7-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to PIT 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 37 for 10 yards (25-D.Felton). FUMBLES (25-D.Felton), recovered by PIT-31-J.Layne at PIT 37. Penalty on PIT-24-B.Snell, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.70 EP
68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model