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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-D.Felton to CLE 24 for no gain (41-R.Spillane). PENALTY on CLE-23-T.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model