4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 2, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model