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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CLE 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model