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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +1.69 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.04 EP