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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-D.Felton.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -2.17 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model