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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 39
Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to PIT 40 for -1 yards (55-D.Bush; 90-T.Watt).
The Three Options
GO
+1.97 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.54 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.76 EP
KICK
-0.04 EP
- 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT
+0.09 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
