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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 14-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.00 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model