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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 68

Chicago Bears 16 – San Francisco 49ers 15

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to SF 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 48 for 21 yards (48-P.Scales, 21-X.Crawford).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.75 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model