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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 14-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model