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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 30 – Chicago Bears 22

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model