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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 8-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to NO 8, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.30 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP