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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 8-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to NO 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP