Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to TB 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 23 for no gain (48-J.Gray). PENALTY on TB-9-J.Tryon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.04 EP
54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model