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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short left to 11-D.Harris to TB 25 for 7 yards (43-R.Cockrell) [31-A.Winfield]. Pass 7, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model