4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 6-B.Johnson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model