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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 46

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:12) (Shotgun) 32-J.Patterson up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (29-B.Callahan).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.76 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model