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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 34

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 12-C.Blewitt 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model