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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 97

Washington Commanders 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 5-T.Way punts 66 yards to DEN 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 46 for 15 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -4.09 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 97, worth -6.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model