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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 19

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:33) (Shotgun) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 83-R.Seals-Jones (59-M.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model