4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 35

Denver Broncos 10 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model