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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 27

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 12-C.Blewitt 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-S.Harris), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model