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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model