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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-R.Moore to ARI 29 for 2 yards (49-T.Cannon, 27-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model