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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model