Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(10:49) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 32 for 9 yards (33-A.Hamilton; 45-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model