Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 31 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-64-S.Harlow, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.86 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.29 EP

KICK -1.35 EP

25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
75% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model