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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model