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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 15-M.Wright 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP