4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 3-M.Haack punts 59 yards to JAX 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 22 for 14 yards (25-T.Jones; 44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model