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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 15-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model