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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to BUF 8 for 3 yards (98-S.Lotulelei). PENALTY on BUF-39-L.Wallace, Taunting, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 8.

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model