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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 3-M.Haack punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP