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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 16 at the 48
Buffalo Bills 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9
What Actually Happened
(1:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs.
The Three Options
GO
-0.32 EP
What Happened
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.24 EP
- 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -1.39 EP
KICK
-0.41 EP
- 26% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
Model's Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
