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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to BUF 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-55-L.McCray.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.56 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model