Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 82

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

(2:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to BUF 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.99 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model