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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to PIT 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 17 for 3 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model