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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 82

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to CHI 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.64 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP