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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 12

Chicago Bears 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:19) 2-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.74 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model