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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to CHI 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-41-R.Spillane.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP